The whole point of the NBA is to get to the truth. For an NBA season, the truth is the answer to the question: "Who's the best team in the league?" You can probably look at the season as a series of binary experiments, comparing two teams. There are 1,230 such experiments during the regular season, and the playoffs consist of a maximum of 105 experiments. Based on the outcomes of these experiments, we're able to determine the best team in the league.
Think about that - the NBA plays more than 1,300 games to get at this truth, and most, if not all, of these teams are entirely different at the end of the season as they are at the beginning. It's almost as if the first month and a half of the NBA regular season can be thrown out, kind of like a feeling out process. There's an algorithm used heavily in statistics called the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Essentially, it's a way to find the answer to a difficult question by creatively re-sampling from difficult-to-use data. But, in order to get to meaningful results, the algorithm first throws out the first 10-20% of the samples that it draws, called a burn-in period.
I feel like the time before Christmas is the burn-in period for NBA teams. They have to learn how to communicate with new, integral teammates, they have to learn defensive rotations and timing on setting picks, they have to learn where big men like to be fed. That's why I like to call Christmas the real start to the NBA season.
This year's Christmas slate might be a little lackluster, save the Finals rematch at 2:30 PM ET. But I'll go through each game, talk about what I like on each team and what I don't like (don't sue me, Zach Lowe), and then I'll make a prediction.
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
Likes
Marcus Smart playing a lot of minutes as small forward. His first two years, Smart's played 22% and 11% of his minutes at the three, but this year, that number has skyrocketed to 38%. He pesters less efficient ball-handlers and is strong enough to hold his own against unskilled post-up players.
Kristaps Porzingis's savvy mindgames. Just read this quote: “Without Melo, it would be so much more difficult [for me] to get 30 points, or whatever. People don’t realize that. He draws a lot of attention. He’s the main focus for the other team. That opens stuff for me. Without him it would be much more difficult. I’m happy to have aggressive guys like him and [Derrick] Rose so I can get those open looks.” That's right, lull them into thinking they're the boss and then slowly take control from the inside.
Think about that - the NBA plays more than 1,300 games to get at this truth, and most, if not all, of these teams are entirely different at the end of the season as they are at the beginning. It's almost as if the first month and a half of the NBA regular season can be thrown out, kind of like a feeling out process. There's an algorithm used heavily in statistics called the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Essentially, it's a way to find the answer to a difficult question by creatively re-sampling from difficult-to-use data. But, in order to get to meaningful results, the algorithm first throws out the first 10-20% of the samples that it draws, called a burn-in period.
I feel like the time before Christmas is the burn-in period for NBA teams. They have to learn how to communicate with new, integral teammates, they have to learn defensive rotations and timing on setting picks, they have to learn where big men like to be fed. That's why I like to call Christmas the real start to the NBA season.
This year's Christmas slate might be a little lackluster, save the Finals rematch at 2:30 PM ET. But I'll go through each game, talk about what I like on each team and what I don't like (don't sue me, Zach Lowe), and then I'll make a prediction.
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
Likes
Marcus Smart playing a lot of minutes as small forward. His first two years, Smart's played 22% and 11% of his minutes at the three, but this year, that number has skyrocketed to 38%. He pesters less efficient ball-handlers and is strong enough to hold his own against unskilled post-up players.
Kristaps Porzingis's savvy mindgames. Just read this quote: “Without Melo, it would be so much more difficult [for me] to get 30 points, or whatever. People don’t realize that. He draws a lot of attention. He’s the main focus for the other team. That opens stuff for me. Without him it would be much more difficult. I’m happy to have aggressive guys like him and [Derrick] Rose so I can get those open looks.” That's right, lull them into thinking they're the boss and then slowly take control from the inside.
Dislikes
Al Horford's three point attempts. He's taking 31.5% of his shots from beyond the arc, and he's only converting of 33.8% of them. I understand that spacing from your competent center is necessary when your point guard is the size of a rat, but maybe dial it in a little? This is just so much prettier than a brick from the outside.
Carmelo Anthony's plummeting assist rate. With even more options, Melo's assist percentage has dropped seven percentage points since the last year. Maybe it's time for him to learn how to create from the elbow, rather than just gunning.
Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Likes
Kevin Durant's commitment to defense. On Oklahoma City, Durant's focus was running the offense and scoring. Now, that the Warriors' offense runs itself, he's decided to recommit himself on the defensive side, averaging 1.2 steals and 1.6 blocks. But what's even more eye-popping is his team-leading, top 15 in the league defensive win-shares.
LeBron James not giving a shit. 25.5/8.8/7.8, best team in the East, quietly having a very efficient scoring season (51% from the field and 38% from three), and he's not in the MVP conversation. I don't think he really cares.
Dislikes
Lack of Steph Curry explosions. I understand the egalitarian playing style of this year's Warriors. I get that they want to save their players' energy for a long postseason run. But I miss 24 point quarters, three three-pointers in 32 seconds, left-handed scoop shots in the lane after breaking an unassuming player's ankles. But I guess stuff like this makes up for it.
Jimmy Butler as a top-three player in the Eastern Conference. LeBron's better, maybe Giannis. Butler's been amazing this year.
The bench mob. One of San Antonio's most consistent lineups (outscoring opponents by 3 points per 100 possessions) is their bench lineup of Manu Ginobili as the primary creator, Patty Mills spotting up and pestering other backup points and Jonathon Simmons being reckless on both sides of the ball, and David Lee and Dewayne Dedmon at the bigs. That lineup shouldn't be good, but it is.
Dislikes
Nikola Mirotic as only a spot-up shooter. Mirotic has an average shot distance of 17.88 feet (compare to around 14 feet in his most effective season two years ago). But, his average make distance is 14.50 feet and his average miss distance is 20.04 feet. It doesn't take a genius to see what's happening; he's spotting up more and when he makes a play off a kickout, he's more effective than just standstill shooting.
Lamarcus Aldridge's lack of touches. I want the Spurs to stagger Aldridge's minutes with Kawhi Leonard, so that Aldridge can put the fear of God into the minds of players like Meyers Leonard and Alan Williams. Aldridge's attempts have fallen to a career-low, and it's affecting his rebounding and defensive effort. Part of the Aldridge's use on this team is to carry their offense over stretches in the regular season, and the Spurs aren't using him to his fullest potential.
Prediction: Spurs in a blowout
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
Likes
Tyus Jones as the future backup point guard. Whenever you think of good backup point guards, you think about players who can run a team and don't need to score to be effective - guys like Cory Joseph and Shaun Livingston. Tyus Jones, in limited moments, has shown the ability to make good entry passes and shoot effectively from the corners. I'm pretty sure that Jones will find a place in the NBA as an effective leader off the bench, like a very poor man's Mike Conley.
Russell Westbrook in the "clutch". I often make the argument that clutch statistics are stupid because the great players and the great teams just aren't in close games down the stretch in the regular season. But Westbrook's supporting cast essentially makes it impossible to not be in close games. Russ is shooting 41% in the clutch, and he's taken 92 shots total. His average shot distance is also 13.45 feet, so he's not settling for shots.
Dislikes
Gorgui Dieng beside Karl-Anthony Towns. Oh, how I hate the big man rotation for Minnesota, outside Towns. Dieng is a serviceable big, but he's a plodding center with range only out to about 16 to 18 feet. The Timberwolves need to start exploring trades for a stretch four.
Kyle Singler still getting minutes. The hair alone should ban him from the NBA. But he's also shooting 16.7% from deep. So there's that.
Prediction: Minnesota in a close one
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
Likes
Chris Paul as MVP. Westbrook and James Harden have made their case for MVP. But Chris Paul is having himself a season. The Clippers have sputtered since their blistering 15 game start, but Paul's mastery of the pick-and-roll and his increase in three point percentage is a beauty to watch. Now, with Blake Griffin's minor procedure, we'll see an uptick in Paul's scoring.
Lou Williams. I don't really feel like writing too much about this one. So, just watch Lou Williams do Lou Williams things.
Dislikes
Clippers's wing rotation. Either too small or too big. Read more about it here.
Brandon Ingram's minutes. Ingram's too skinny, isn't shooting effectively, and gets outclassed in the post on defense. SO WHAT? After a few more weeks, I want Walton to throw him into the deep end, start him and play him 30+ minutes a game. The egalitarian, team-first mentality has worked for stretches, but it's important to see what the young core can do together. A lineup of Jordan Clarkson, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, Larry Nance, and Julius Randle has switchability, spacing (potentially), athleticism, rebounding ability, and energy. That lineup has played a total of 6.6 minutes together, owing to Russell's injury. I'm looking for more of that moving forward.
Prediction: Clippers in a lackluster double-digit win
Al Horford's three point attempts. He's taking 31.5% of his shots from beyond the arc, and he's only converting of 33.8% of them. I understand that spacing from your competent center is necessary when your point guard is the size of a rat, but maybe dial it in a little? This is just so much prettier than a brick from the outside.
Carmelo Anthony's plummeting assist rate. With even more options, Melo's assist percentage has dropped seven percentage points since the last year. Maybe it's time for him to learn how to create from the elbow, rather than just gunning.
Prediction: Boston Celtics in a close overall game
Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Likes
Kevin Durant's commitment to defense. On Oklahoma City, Durant's focus was running the offense and scoring. Now, that the Warriors' offense runs itself, he's decided to recommit himself on the defensive side, averaging 1.2 steals and 1.6 blocks. But what's even more eye-popping is his team-leading, top 15 in the league defensive win-shares.
LeBron James not giving a shit. 25.5/8.8/7.8, best team in the East, quietly having a very efficient scoring season (51% from the field and 38% from three), and he's not in the MVP conversation. I don't think he really cares.
Dislikes
Lack of Steph Curry explosions. I understand the egalitarian playing style of this year's Warriors. I get that they want to save their players' energy for a long postseason run. But I miss 24 point quarters, three three-pointers in 32 seconds, left-handed scoop shots in the lane after breaking an unassuming player's ankles. But I guess stuff like this makes up for it.
DeAndre Liggins as the backup point guard. The Cavs need to find themselves a serviceable backup point guard, especially given the injury and rest issues they're having. Maybe swallowing C.J. Watson's salary into their Anderson Varejao trade exception will do the trick.
Prediction: Golden State in a rout
Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs
LikesPrediction: Golden State in a rout
Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs
Jimmy Butler as a top-three player in the Eastern Conference. LeBron's better, maybe Giannis. Butler's been amazing this year.
The bench mob. One of San Antonio's most consistent lineups (outscoring opponents by 3 points per 100 possessions) is their bench lineup of Manu Ginobili as the primary creator, Patty Mills spotting up and pestering other backup points and Jonathon Simmons being reckless on both sides of the ball, and David Lee and Dewayne Dedmon at the bigs. That lineup shouldn't be good, but it is.
Dislikes
Nikola Mirotic as only a spot-up shooter. Mirotic has an average shot distance of 17.88 feet (compare to around 14 feet in his most effective season two years ago). But, his average make distance is 14.50 feet and his average miss distance is 20.04 feet. It doesn't take a genius to see what's happening; he's spotting up more and when he makes a play off a kickout, he's more effective than just standstill shooting.
Lamarcus Aldridge's lack of touches. I want the Spurs to stagger Aldridge's minutes with Kawhi Leonard, so that Aldridge can put the fear of God into the minds of players like Meyers Leonard and Alan Williams. Aldridge's attempts have fallen to a career-low, and it's affecting his rebounding and defensive effort. Part of the Aldridge's use on this team is to carry their offense over stretches in the regular season, and the Spurs aren't using him to his fullest potential.
Prediction: Spurs in a blowout
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
Likes
Tyus Jones as the future backup point guard. Whenever you think of good backup point guards, you think about players who can run a team and don't need to score to be effective - guys like Cory Joseph and Shaun Livingston. Tyus Jones, in limited moments, has shown the ability to make good entry passes and shoot effectively from the corners. I'm pretty sure that Jones will find a place in the NBA as an effective leader off the bench, like a very poor man's Mike Conley.
Russell Westbrook in the "clutch". I often make the argument that clutch statistics are stupid because the great players and the great teams just aren't in close games down the stretch in the regular season. But Westbrook's supporting cast essentially makes it impossible to not be in close games. Russ is shooting 41% in the clutch, and he's taken 92 shots total. His average shot distance is also 13.45 feet, so he's not settling for shots.
Dislikes
Gorgui Dieng beside Karl-Anthony Towns. Oh, how I hate the big man rotation for Minnesota, outside Towns. Dieng is a serviceable big, but he's a plodding center with range only out to about 16 to 18 feet. The Timberwolves need to start exploring trades for a stretch four.
Kyle Singler still getting minutes. The hair alone should ban him from the NBA. But he's also shooting 16.7% from deep. So there's that.
Prediction: Minnesota in a close one
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
Likes
Chris Paul as MVP. Westbrook and James Harden have made their case for MVP. But Chris Paul is having himself a season. The Clippers have sputtered since their blistering 15 game start, but Paul's mastery of the pick-and-roll and his increase in three point percentage is a beauty to watch. Now, with Blake Griffin's minor procedure, we'll see an uptick in Paul's scoring.
Lou Williams. I don't really feel like writing too much about this one. So, just watch Lou Williams do Lou Williams things.
Dislikes
Clippers's wing rotation. Either too small or too big. Read more about it here.
Brandon Ingram's minutes. Ingram's too skinny, isn't shooting effectively, and gets outclassed in the post on defense. SO WHAT? After a few more weeks, I want Walton to throw him into the deep end, start him and play him 30+ minutes a game. The egalitarian, team-first mentality has worked for stretches, but it's important to see what the young core can do together. A lineup of Jordan Clarkson, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, Larry Nance, and Julius Randle has switchability, spacing (potentially), athleticism, rebounding ability, and energy. That lineup has played a total of 6.6 minutes together, owing to Russell's injury. I'm looking for more of that moving forward.
Prediction: Clippers in a lackluster double-digit win
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