The draft order below is determined by inverting the standings, and applying the necessary draft swaps.
1. Boston Celtics - Lonzo Ball
Ceiling Comp: Jason Kidd with J.J. Redick's shooting accuracy
Floor Comp: J.J. Redick with Jason Kidd's passing vision
I'm taking this moment to chart out how the Knicks can move on from this dumpster fire. Dump Melo. Find a way to get rid of Melo for some kind of asset. Honestly, it doesn't matter what asset, just get rid of him. Find a suitable point guard and a frontcourt mate for Porzingis and then be patient.
Ivan Rabb might be that frontcourt partner that Porzingis needs, a stretchy, but effective post player, who will need the ball on the black at first. He's really weak for his position, so he'll need to put on a lot of weight. He's also reluctant to shoot from range even though he has the ability. But Rabb and Porzingis can wreak havoc on defense, especially if the Knicks adopt a high ball pressure system. Rabb is a particularly good help defender and he has the speed to keep up with stretch fours. Throw together a team that has defensive-mind wings, a point guard that can create for others, and those two forwards at their peaks, the Knicks may have the start to something.
1. Boston Celtics - Lonzo Ball
Ceiling Comp: Jason Kidd with J.J. Redick's shooting accuracy
Floor Comp: J.J. Redick with Jason Kidd's passing vision
Boston needs wing depth, especially since their top three guards are all point guards. Marcus Smart hsa the strength to guard wings, but offensively he requires the ball in his hands. Lonzo Ball fits the rotation very well, playing well off-ball with Isaiah Thomas and Smart because of his shooting ability, his quick first step, and his secondary playmaking. His defense needs to markedly improve, which will, as he ages and gains strength. But, in that Brad Stevens spread offese, his court feel would add a lot.
However, if the Celtics can package this pick for an established first or second option for their team, that's the move. If the Bulls' season completely unravels, they may try to parlay their Sacramento top 10-protected pick for the number one and add in Jimmy Butler for lesser Celtics assets. That way the Celtics get the help they need right now and can add some defensive frontcourt depth in a Harry Giles or a Justin Patton.
2. Miami Heat - Markelle Fultz
Ceiling Comp: James Harden
Floor Comp: Eric Bledsoe
Ceiling Comp: James Harden
Floor Comp: Eric Bledsoe
Miami can't really do any wrong in this draft if they get a top three pick. They need a young point guard to regrettably pair with Hassan Whiteside and surround with the wing talent they already have. The very best they can do is luck into Markelle Fultz, a score-first point guard with an ever-improving jump shot. His size, length, quickness, and effort show that he can command the top of a pick-and-roll on both sides of the ball. This is a home-run pick for Miami, someone they can play behind, with, and instead of Goran Dragic.
3. Phoenix Suns - Jayson Tatum
Celing Comp: DeMar DeRozan with defensive instincts
Floor Comp: Bigger Ricky Davis
Celing Comp: DeMar DeRozan with defensive instincts
Floor Comp: Bigger Ricky Davis
I'm a lot higher on Jayson Tatum than most people, possibly because of my level of exposure to him on Tobacco Road. But he's playing behind two ball-dominant, score-first wings in Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard in a vanilla sort of offense with minimal ball movement and scheme. His smooth offensive game on the block will allow him to transition to the NBA game quite easily. On defense, he'll be able to guard four positions at his peak. He has a decent enough jumper with a stroke that doesn't really have a hitch, so he's going to improve in the league. That last point is what sets him apart from Josh Jackson - he won't be a liability on offense on day one.
Dennis Smith, Jr. is obviously a better prospect that Tatum, but since the Suns have a litany of playmakers on their team, a finisher might be more of a need.
4. Dallas Mavericks - Dennis Smith, Jr.
Ceiling Comp: Russell Westbrook
Floor Comp: Baron Davis
Ceiling Comp: Russell Westbrook
Floor Comp: Baron Davis
Again, there's no other logical choice for the Mavericks, one of the few teams in the league without a starting caliber point guard. Dennis Smith has shown flashes of masterful athleticism to get into the paint whenever he wants. On top of that, he's a willing passer for such a gifted finisher. Defensively, he still plays with lackluster effort, often not even bringing his arms into his defensive stance. That being said, Smith's athleticism gives him the biggest upside among the three top point guard prospects. Rick Carlisle's tutelage and a pairing him with a legend like Dirk and an establishing Harrison Barnes may be good for his progression.
5. Philadelphia 76ers - De'Aaron Fox
Ceiling Comp: Mike Conley
Floor Comp: Bigger Darren Collison
Ceiling Comp: Mike Conley
Floor Comp: Bigger Darren Collison
6. Philadelphia 76ers - Malik Monk
Player Comparison: C.J. McCollum
Floor Comp: Jimmer Fredette
Player Comparison: C.J. McCollum
Floor Comp: Jimmer Fredette
The Sixers get to pick consecutively in this order and selecting the combo guard duo of Fox and Monk may just work for them. They can buy a 3-and-D wing to be their leader in free agency (maybe a Kentavious Caldwell-Pope type), throw together a backcourt that plays off one another beautifully, and have the potential to spread the floor for Ben Simmons. De'Aaron Fox provides length on the perimeter, something that will aid his growth defensively. Even if Fox's shooting stroke doesn't improve right away, his quickness and touch on skip passes won't clog the floor. Malik Monk will slot in very quickly as a scorer, his only role to be to find his own shot and shoot open threes. That'll allow him to work slowly on his shaky ball-handling and less-than-adequate defense.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves - Jonathan Isaac
Ceiling Comp: Rashard Lewis with rim protection
Floor Comp: Channing Frye with spotty rim protection
This is the seamless fit that I hope the Timberwolves can luck into. Isaac is a quintessential stretch four for a modern offense and a Tom Thibodeau defense. His shooting stroke is one of the purest in the draft, and even though he isn't quite fully consistent from NBA three-point range just now, it's obvious he'll extend his range once given the opportunity. At Florida State, he's relegated to playing small forward, but alongside the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Zach Lavine, and Karl-Anthony Towns, he'll be able to play a role, similar to Robert Horry. But what sets him apart from most stretch fours is his defensive ceiling. At Florida State, he's the best rim protector, especially given his 7'2" wingspan. He's a willing rebounder and has the ability to switch onto smaller perimeter players. The concern is that he's a little weak with the ball and he needs to put on at least twenty to thirty pounds to even compete at the power forward spot. If he can't, he's too slow to play on the wing in the NBA.
Ceiling Comp: Rashard Lewis with rim protection
Floor Comp: Channing Frye with spotty rim protection
This is the seamless fit that I hope the Timberwolves can luck into. Isaac is a quintessential stretch four for a modern offense and a Tom Thibodeau defense. His shooting stroke is one of the purest in the draft, and even though he isn't quite fully consistent from NBA three-point range just now, it's obvious he'll extend his range once given the opportunity. At Florida State, he's relegated to playing small forward, but alongside the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Zach Lavine, and Karl-Anthony Towns, he'll be able to play a role, similar to Robert Horry. But what sets him apart from most stretch fours is his defensive ceiling. At Florida State, he's the best rim protector, especially given his 7'2" wingspan. He's a willing rebounder and has the ability to switch onto smaller perimeter players. The concern is that he's a little weak with the ball and he needs to put on at least twenty to thirty pounds to even compete at the power forward spot. If he can't, he's too slow to play on the wing in the NBA.
8. New Orleans Pelicans - Josh Jackson
Ceiling Comp: Kawhi Leonard
Floor Comp: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Josh Jackson is one streaky shooting performance away from vaulting himself into the top five. He already has the defensive tendencies to be a perimeter stopper and be able to switch onto bigs for a few seconds a possession. He has really good passing vision, especially from a wing position, which can be attributed to his age. He's the best finisher in the draft as well. But, he's a horrible shooter, with a hitch in his shot and no touch on the follow-through. Kawhi Leonard was able to fix his shot and become a very good shooter, but the number of players with Jackson's defensive potential and shooting woes who were not able to improve the latter far outnumber the ones who were. But, if he can have a shooting streak of a few games near March and April, his draft stock will skyrocket.
Ceiling Comp: Kawhi Leonard
Floor Comp: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Josh Jackson is one streaky shooting performance away from vaulting himself into the top five. He already has the defensive tendencies to be a perimeter stopper and be able to switch onto bigs for a few seconds a possession. He has really good passing vision, especially from a wing position, which can be attributed to his age. He's the best finisher in the draft as well. But, he's a horrible shooter, with a hitch in his shot and no touch on the follow-through. Kawhi Leonard was able to fix his shot and become a very good shooter, but the number of players with Jackson's defensive potential and shooting woes who were not able to improve the latter far outnumber the ones who were. But, if he can have a shooting streak of a few games near March and April, his draft stock will skyrocket.
9. Orlando Magic - Frank Ntilikina
Ceiling Comp: Gary Payton
Floor Comp: Elrid Payton
Ceiling Comp: Gary Payton
Floor Comp: Elrid Payton
I'll be honest - I've only watched YouTube clips of Ntilikina and don't think I can actually pronounce his last name. But he has length that'll make him a great defender given development of the right instincts. He's shown good finishing ability and decent passing vision. But, the lack of a shot, his lackluster effort on defense, and the lack of even college-level competition make me a little skeptical. Still, the Magic would be wise to take a point guard prospect to hedge for Elfrid Payton.
10. Denver Nuggets - T.J. Leaf
Ceiling Comp: Ryan Anderson with ball skills
Floor Comp: Nick Collison
Leaf is one of the most exciting offensive prospects in this draft, at least for me. He's a stretch four with the ability to put the ball on the floor and take it to the rim. He has post skills - a turnaround, a hook, and some countermoves. The problem is that he's not an elite athelete, or even an above average one. And his defensive instincts are a little weak. But there are so many stretch bigs in the NBA who have carved out a niche despite being defensive negatives. Denver can pair Leaf with Jokic and have a skilled frontcourt that can carve opponents in the halfcourt.
Ceiling Comp: Ryan Anderson with ball skills
Floor Comp: Nick Collison
Leaf is one of the most exciting offensive prospects in this draft, at least for me. He's a stretch four with the ability to put the ball on the floor and take it to the rim. He has post skills - a turnaround, a hook, and some countermoves. The problem is that he's not an elite athelete, or even an above average one. And his defensive instincts are a little weak. But there are so many stretch bigs in the NBA who have carved out a niche despite being defensive negatives. Denver can pair Leaf with Jokic and have a skilled frontcourt that can carve opponents in the halfcourt.
11. Chicago Bulls - Harry Giles
Ceiling Comp: Chris Webber
Floor Comp: Weaker Steven Adams
Due to his knees, Giles will fall in this draft. At the beginning of the year, I predicted that he'd fall out of the lottery. But if Chicago smartly tanks a little, or even trades Butler, they may end up with two lottery picks. It doesn't hurt to take a chance on Harry Giles, once the prospect in this draft with the highest upside. He's still recovering from his ACL tears, but he has a great motor and touch in the paint. That's the start to a good rebounding center. Add in his rim protection instincts and his ability to defer to more important perimeter players is very appealing. He still gets burned on switches out to the perimeter, something Louisville feasted on. He has all the tools to be a positive center in the league, and the Bulls, who really have no future, should take a risk.
Ceiling Comp: Chris Webber
Floor Comp: Weaker Steven Adams
Due to his knees, Giles will fall in this draft. At the beginning of the year, I predicted that he'd fall out of the lottery. But if Chicago smartly tanks a little, or even trades Butler, they may end up with two lottery picks. It doesn't hurt to take a chance on Harry Giles, once the prospect in this draft with the highest upside. He's still recovering from his ACL tears, but he has a great motor and touch in the paint. That's the start to a good rebounding center. Add in his rim protection instincts and his ability to defer to more important perimeter players is very appealing. He still gets burned on switches out to the perimeter, something Louisville feasted on. He has all the tools to be a positive center in the league, and the Bulls, who really have no future, should take a risk.
12. New York Knicks - Ivan Rabb
Ceiling Comp: Chris Bosh
Floor Comp: Jordan Hill
Ceiling Comp: Chris Bosh
Floor Comp: Jordan Hill
I'm taking this moment to chart out how the Knicks can move on from this dumpster fire. Dump Melo. Find a way to get rid of Melo for some kind of asset. Honestly, it doesn't matter what asset, just get rid of him. Find a suitable point guard and a frontcourt mate for Porzingis and then be patient.
Ivan Rabb might be that frontcourt partner that Porzingis needs, a stretchy, but effective post player, who will need the ball on the black at first. He's really weak for his position, so he'll need to put on a lot of weight. He's also reluctant to shoot from range even though he has the ability. But Rabb and Porzingis can wreak havoc on defense, especially if the Knicks adopt a high ball pressure system. Rabb is a particularly good help defender and he has the speed to keep up with stretch fours. Throw together a team that has defensive-mind wings, a point guard that can create for others, and those two forwards at their peaks, the Knicks may have the start to something.
13. Detroit Pistons - Lauri Markkanen
Ceiling Comp: Kevin Love with less post ability but little more defense
Floor Comp: Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Lauri Markkanen has bust potential written all over him. He's playing in a conference with weak defensive bigs and gets a lot of buckets outrunning plodding college bigs. I'm not quite sold yet. That being said, he has great touch from outside, a good motor to rebound, and can put the ball on the floor. His size and mobility may translate into being a positive defender on the next level, but he often saves himself on defense to play all-out on offense. The Pistons could use an offensively gifted backup to Drummond who can play spot minutes with him. With T.J. Leaf off the board, Markkanen may be the option.
Ceiling Comp: Kevin Love with less post ability but little more defense
Floor Comp: Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Lauri Markkanen has bust potential written all over him. He's playing in a conference with weak defensive bigs and gets a lot of buckets outrunning plodding college bigs. I'm not quite sold yet. That being said, he has great touch from outside, a good motor to rebound, and can put the ball on the floor. His size and mobility may translate into being a positive defender on the next level, but he often saves himself on defense to play all-out on offense. The Pistons could use an offensively gifted backup to Drummond who can play spot minutes with him. With T.J. Leaf off the board, Markkanen may be the option.
14. Charlotte Hornets - Luke Kennard
Ceiling Comp: Smaller Gordon Hayward
Floor Comp: Kyle Korver
There's a litany of rotation-level bigs left in the draft at this point, including Robert Williams, the jumpy, long power forward out of Texas A&M, Bam Adebayo, who's ready to throw elbows in the NBA right now, and Justin Patton, perhaps the best defensive center in the draft, out of Creighton. The Hornets, however, need shooting and scoring. That is exactly what Luke Kennard does best. In my post about Duke's Jayson Tatum, I salivated a little with Kennard's ability to find angles. He was always an elite shooter, but this year, given Grayson Allen's troubles, he's been the lead playmaker and scorer for Duke. Kennard can play off-the-ball, coming off screens, much like Coach K played Redick. But he also has the ability to get in the lane with pretty footwork and finish on floaters and shielded layups and find his bigs for easy dump offs. He's a terrible defender and probably needs to compete a little more on the boards, but the fit in Charlotte as an off the bench pure scorer is uncanny.
Ceiling Comp: Smaller Gordon Hayward
Floor Comp: Kyle Korver
There's a litany of rotation-level bigs left in the draft at this point, including Robert Williams, the jumpy, long power forward out of Texas A&M, Bam Adebayo, who's ready to throw elbows in the NBA right now, and Justin Patton, perhaps the best defensive center in the draft, out of Creighton. The Hornets, however, need shooting and scoring. That is exactly what Luke Kennard does best. In my post about Duke's Jayson Tatum, I salivated a little with Kennard's ability to find angles. He was always an elite shooter, but this year, given Grayson Allen's troubles, he's been the lead playmaker and scorer for Duke. Kennard can play off-the-ball, coming off screens, much like Coach K played Redick. But he also has the ability to get in the lane with pretty footwork and finish on floaters and shielded layups and find his bigs for easy dump offs. He's a terrible defender and probably needs to compete a little more on the boards, but the fit in Charlotte as an off the bench pure scorer is uncanny.
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