Oklahoma City Thunder
Additions: Victor Oladipo, Domatas Sabonis, Ersan Ilyasova
Losses: Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Randy Foye
This is such a hot take that it might burn my ass - the Oklahoma City Thunder will finish with one of the top four seed in the Western Conference. Why? Because of this. And little bit of this. When the Thunder made their draft night trade of Ibaka, I questioned their judgment. But the more I think about it, the more I realize that the Thunder are going to be one helluva of a fun team. Westbrook and Oladipo are going to create havoc for opposing backcourts, breaking several ankles during the years, taking turns running interesting pick-and-roll schemes with a top-three center in the NBA. I'm banking on Cameron Payne and Waiters contributing as the third and fourth guards, in some order, in a team that will play as up tempo as any team in the NBA.
But why am I so unconcerned for the Thunder losing Durant? Westbrook will get free reign of this team and will impose his will. He will play with the wings of Gabriel on his back and the horns of Lucifer on his head as he rumbles into the paint. He's going to be severely inefficient, but this team is as close to the 2001 Sixers featuring Iverson and his sorry band of "get the fuck out of the way on offense and get the ball back for me on defense" buddies. Westbrook is no longer going to feel the burden of deferring to Durant, and he can play pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll with Adams until the opposing team has lost the will to think about their reads. I'm really hoping they secure the 4 or 5 seed in the West, and we see Westbrook against the Warriors.
Utah Jazz
Additions: Joe Johnson, Trevor Booker, George Hill
Losses: Trevor Booker, Olivier Hanlan, Trey Burke
The Utah Jazz are gaining traction in a weakening Western Conference. Their young core makes for one of the best defensive units in the game, but their offense is still going to sputter once in a while. The ideal lineup that optimizes the offense and defense for this team is Hayward and Hood playmaking from the wing positions, Burks or Hill guarding the opposing team's point and taking open threes, with Favors and Gobert manning the paint. Defensively, that's a strong bunch, capable of playing tough, in-your-jersey defense, contesting any shot at the rim with their two behemoths, and gobbling up any defensive rebounds to end the possession. But playing two plodding bigs, one of whom (Gobert) isn't the best post-up player or the best finisher even, is a recipe for an inefficient offense. Bringing Lyles, Diaw, or Johnson in at the four is going to sacrifice a lot of defensive ability for the team.
The other kicker for this team is that George Hill can't be the long term solution as the clutch-time point guard for this team, owing to his age. Burks isn't the solution either, since he doesn't have the play-making ability of a point. Exum is who the Jazz staff want to groom into the point guard for this team, and he'll be getting a lot of minutes for this team this year. But Exum isn't the best defender yet, definitely not on Hill's level, and his shot is raw. He did lose an entire year, but his instincts on pick-and-roll schemes need to improve. The only way to do that is reps, reps that may screw up possessions this season and maybe even in the playoffs. Basically, what I'm saying is that I'm not as bullish on the Jazz as most people are for next year. The off-season moves for Johnson and Diaw give some veteran leadership, but they might not have enough left in the tank to provide more defensive stability and offensive playmaking to catapult them into the upper echelon of the conference.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Additions: Kris Dunn, Cole Aldrich, Brandon Rush
Losses: Tayshaun Prince
Much has been made of this team reaching the playoffs this years, and I think that there's a trade to be made here before that can happen. The young core of Towns, Wiggins, LaVine, and Dunn is terrific, and given some shooting strides made by Wiggins and LaVine, their geometric fit makes sense. But Rubio and his abject failure of a shooting stroke needs to be unloaded on a sorry team. Can anyone say Sacramento? How about a deal revolving Skal and some salary dumps for Rubio? Sacramento gets an up-tempo point guard to post feed Boogie, and Minnesota unloads a point guard that will never quite fit for a big that can probably play alongside Towns and be a face-up fifth option beside Towns.
Now, just how high is the ceiling for this team next year? Personally, I think they'll compete for the eight seed, but fall just short. Let's chalk out where the improvement needs to be on a typical possession. Rubio or Dunn brings the ball down the court. Towns sets a screen and gets the ball on the wing. Either kick back out to the top of the key for Wiggins, who tries to pick-and-roll with Towns with LaVine playing the weakside baseline and their spot-up four on the other baseline, hopefully all the way out to the three-point arc. So where's the issue? There are three huge issues. One, Wiggins isn't a good ball-handler or playmaker right now. And his skill sets are best utilized with the ball in his hands, with him crashing to the rim. Two, what the hell is Dunn or Rubio going to do without the ball in their hands? Both of them are terrible shooters. And three, who is standing around on the other baseline? Surely not Pekovic. Maybe Dieng, but he only stretches the floor to around 16-18 feet. Maybe Bjelica? That's a defensive liability then. The solution might be a small-ball lineup with Muhammad. But again, back to defensive liabilities. If this team can make a move that acquires them a playable power forward, Minnesota can make the playoffs. But without a full lineup that makes sense, they'll need to work hard.
Portland Trailblazers
Additions: Evan Turner, Festus Ezeli, Jake Layman
Losses: Allen Crabbe, Gerald Henderson, Brian Roberts
Last year's Blazers were upstart and a surprise. At the beginning of the season, no betting man would have pegged them to get to the second round of the playoffs. But they took a step back this off-season. Turning their backup wings of Crabbe and Henderson into Turner is a severe downgrade. Henderson and Turner are equivalent players, but losing the shooting of Crabbe will be a big hit. Layman is not ready to bring that shooting off the bench, and he won't be for a while.
The pickup of Festus Ezeli was a good move though, bringing into a play a two-headed rebounding and finishing monster inside. Mason Plumless may be one of the most underrated centers in the game, a play-making big who complement a Lillard pick-and-roll perfectly, given he has three capable shooters. Ezeli provides a different form of big, a rim runner who is looking to finish every time he gets the ball. The only way the Blazers can return to the playoffs next year is if McCollum continues to progress offensively and their backcourt takes a step forward defensively. The bench is also an issue, which was actually a positive for the 2015-16 team. Look for Ed Davis to win a Sixth Man of the Year award this year and playing many more minutes.
Denver Nuggets
Additions: Jamal Murray, Juan Hernangomez, Malik Beasley
Losses: D.J. Augustin, Mike Miller
Denver is rebuilding and their backcourt might be as good for a young backcourt as any. Two combo guards that are big enough to guard both positions (theoretically, at least) but with varying skill sets. Murray can play off the ball when Mudiay is on a pick-and-roll. And if Murray is isolated on a set, Mudiay can play the baseline really well, with his athleticism. The Nuggets are also drafting supremely later in the draft, snagging a stretch four in Hernangomez and future three-point specialist in Beasley. Add that to Nurkic and Jokic, the Nuggets have a collection of young pieces that may not fit together today but can be fit by a good coaching staff.
They need to trade a couple pieces though. Gallinari and Chandler, and to a certain extent, Faried all have no business being on this youth movement. Gallinari and Chandler are both injury prone stretch-fours who can't guard fours or threes at this point of their careers. Watch them get moved to championship contending teams to be three point specialists, possibly for the Clippers, Thunder, or Cavaliers. Faried is a trickier deal. He fits well next to Jokic, when Jokic play makes from the post. But with Nurkic, it's just a log-jam that'll remove space for Mudiay to operate. The Nuggets are going to bottom dwell for a couple to few years in the West, but they have a bright future.
Additions: Victor Oladipo, Domatas Sabonis, Ersan Ilyasova
Losses: Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Randy Foye
This is such a hot take that it might burn my ass - the Oklahoma City Thunder will finish with one of the top four seed in the Western Conference. Why? Because of this. And little bit of this. When the Thunder made their draft night trade of Ibaka, I questioned their judgment. But the more I think about it, the more I realize that the Thunder are going to be one helluva of a fun team. Westbrook and Oladipo are going to create havoc for opposing backcourts, breaking several ankles during the years, taking turns running interesting pick-and-roll schemes with a top-three center in the NBA. I'm banking on Cameron Payne and Waiters contributing as the third and fourth guards, in some order, in a team that will play as up tempo as any team in the NBA.
But why am I so unconcerned for the Thunder losing Durant? Westbrook will get free reign of this team and will impose his will. He will play with the wings of Gabriel on his back and the horns of Lucifer on his head as he rumbles into the paint. He's going to be severely inefficient, but this team is as close to the 2001 Sixers featuring Iverson and his sorry band of "get the fuck out of the way on offense and get the ball back for me on defense" buddies. Westbrook is no longer going to feel the burden of deferring to Durant, and he can play pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll with Adams until the opposing team has lost the will to think about their reads. I'm really hoping they secure the 4 or 5 seed in the West, and we see Westbrook against the Warriors.
Utah Jazz
Additions: Joe Johnson, Trevor Booker, George Hill
Losses: Trevor Booker, Olivier Hanlan, Trey Burke
The Utah Jazz are gaining traction in a weakening Western Conference. Their young core makes for one of the best defensive units in the game, but their offense is still going to sputter once in a while. The ideal lineup that optimizes the offense and defense for this team is Hayward and Hood playmaking from the wing positions, Burks or Hill guarding the opposing team's point and taking open threes, with Favors and Gobert manning the paint. Defensively, that's a strong bunch, capable of playing tough, in-your-jersey defense, contesting any shot at the rim with their two behemoths, and gobbling up any defensive rebounds to end the possession. But playing two plodding bigs, one of whom (Gobert) isn't the best post-up player or the best finisher even, is a recipe for an inefficient offense. Bringing Lyles, Diaw, or Johnson in at the four is going to sacrifice a lot of defensive ability for the team.
The other kicker for this team is that George Hill can't be the long term solution as the clutch-time point guard for this team, owing to his age. Burks isn't the solution either, since he doesn't have the play-making ability of a point. Exum is who the Jazz staff want to groom into the point guard for this team, and he'll be getting a lot of minutes for this team this year. But Exum isn't the best defender yet, definitely not on Hill's level, and his shot is raw. He did lose an entire year, but his instincts on pick-and-roll schemes need to improve. The only way to do that is reps, reps that may screw up possessions this season and maybe even in the playoffs. Basically, what I'm saying is that I'm not as bullish on the Jazz as most people are for next year. The off-season moves for Johnson and Diaw give some veteran leadership, but they might not have enough left in the tank to provide more defensive stability and offensive playmaking to catapult them into the upper echelon of the conference.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Additions: Kris Dunn, Cole Aldrich, Brandon Rush
Losses: Tayshaun Prince
Much has been made of this team reaching the playoffs this years, and I think that there's a trade to be made here before that can happen. The young core of Towns, Wiggins, LaVine, and Dunn is terrific, and given some shooting strides made by Wiggins and LaVine, their geometric fit makes sense. But Rubio and his abject failure of a shooting stroke needs to be unloaded on a sorry team. Can anyone say Sacramento? How about a deal revolving Skal and some salary dumps for Rubio? Sacramento gets an up-tempo point guard to post feed Boogie, and Minnesota unloads a point guard that will never quite fit for a big that can probably play alongside Towns and be a face-up fifth option beside Towns.
Now, just how high is the ceiling for this team next year? Personally, I think they'll compete for the eight seed, but fall just short. Let's chalk out where the improvement needs to be on a typical possession. Rubio or Dunn brings the ball down the court. Towns sets a screen and gets the ball on the wing. Either kick back out to the top of the key for Wiggins, who tries to pick-and-roll with Towns with LaVine playing the weakside baseline and their spot-up four on the other baseline, hopefully all the way out to the three-point arc. So where's the issue? There are three huge issues. One, Wiggins isn't a good ball-handler or playmaker right now. And his skill sets are best utilized with the ball in his hands, with him crashing to the rim. Two, what the hell is Dunn or Rubio going to do without the ball in their hands? Both of them are terrible shooters. And three, who is standing around on the other baseline? Surely not Pekovic. Maybe Dieng, but he only stretches the floor to around 16-18 feet. Maybe Bjelica? That's a defensive liability then. The solution might be a small-ball lineup with Muhammad. But again, back to defensive liabilities. If this team can make a move that acquires them a playable power forward, Minnesota can make the playoffs. But without a full lineup that makes sense, they'll need to work hard.
Portland Trailblazers
Additions: Evan Turner, Festus Ezeli, Jake Layman
Losses: Allen Crabbe, Gerald Henderson, Brian Roberts
Last year's Blazers were upstart and a surprise. At the beginning of the season, no betting man would have pegged them to get to the second round of the playoffs. But they took a step back this off-season. Turning their backup wings of Crabbe and Henderson into Turner is a severe downgrade. Henderson and Turner are equivalent players, but losing the shooting of Crabbe will be a big hit. Layman is not ready to bring that shooting off the bench, and he won't be for a while.
The pickup of Festus Ezeli was a good move though, bringing into a play a two-headed rebounding and finishing monster inside. Mason Plumless may be one of the most underrated centers in the game, a play-making big who complement a Lillard pick-and-roll perfectly, given he has three capable shooters. Ezeli provides a different form of big, a rim runner who is looking to finish every time he gets the ball. The only way the Blazers can return to the playoffs next year is if McCollum continues to progress offensively and their backcourt takes a step forward defensively. The bench is also an issue, which was actually a positive for the 2015-16 team. Look for Ed Davis to win a Sixth Man of the Year award this year and playing many more minutes.
Denver Nuggets
Additions: Jamal Murray, Juan Hernangomez, Malik Beasley
Losses: D.J. Augustin, Mike Miller
Denver is rebuilding and their backcourt might be as good for a young backcourt as any. Two combo guards that are big enough to guard both positions (theoretically, at least) but with varying skill sets. Murray can play off the ball when Mudiay is on a pick-and-roll. And if Murray is isolated on a set, Mudiay can play the baseline really well, with his athleticism. The Nuggets are also drafting supremely later in the draft, snagging a stretch four in Hernangomez and future three-point specialist in Beasley. Add that to Nurkic and Jokic, the Nuggets have a collection of young pieces that may not fit together today but can be fit by a good coaching staff.
They need to trade a couple pieces though. Gallinari and Chandler, and to a certain extent, Faried all have no business being on this youth movement. Gallinari and Chandler are both injury prone stretch-fours who can't guard fours or threes at this point of their careers. Watch them get moved to championship contending teams to be three point specialists, possibly for the Clippers, Thunder, or Cavaliers. Faried is a trickier deal. He fits well next to Jokic, when Jokic play makes from the post. But with Nurkic, it's just a log-jam that'll remove space for Mudiay to operate. The Nuggets are going to bottom dwell for a couple to few years in the West, but they have a bright future.
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