Pause, Take a Breath. Milwaukee Isn't a Finals Contender.

This is actually a PSA to myself. I'm the guy who looked at the first game of the playoffs for each Eastern Conference team, when Cleveland looked shaky, Boston lost to Chicago at home, the Wiz played uninspiring basketball against a hapless Hawks team and took Milwaukee's big Game 1 win over Toronto as an omen. Such a big omen that I placed a bet at +5000 on the Bucks making the Finals. Sure, I'm a grad student, so I only bet $5, but I was more confident than not that I'd get the $250 payout.

But, I have taken a breath and realize that I wasted that Lincoln. Here's some breaking news to me and all the others on the hype train to the Cream City (that is a weirdly soothing nickname for a city): the Bucks aren't making the Finals because they're not ready yet. They're probably not going to win this series against the Raptors, let alone beat the Cavs AND the Wizards or the Celtics. It's not happening this year, and that's completely fine.

Here's what's going right for them:

1. Giannis is a stud. He's closer to being league MVP than any other prospect under 25, not named Kawhi Leonard. It starts with his positional versatility, his trust in his teammates, his explosiveness to the rim, and his playmaking ability. And it ends with his defensive wherewithalt to anchor a team as a perimeter defender, rim protector, and switching nightmare. But the nastiest thing about him is his competitiveness and his mean streak. I don't mean the taking Mike Dunleavy out mean streak (that's freaking amazing for its own merits). I mean the "shit, I missed two free throws in a crucial Game 2 fourth quarter, I'm gonna will myself to the rim and even though I get hit and I'm fading out of bounds, I'm gonna stretch my Inspector Gadget limbs around the backboard and finish for an and-one opportunity" mean streak. Giannis is, without a doubt, the second-best player in the East, and slowly becoming the fourth best forward in the game.
2. They have a core of role players who know and embrace their role. Matthew Dellavedova knows that he's a ball mover, three-point shooter, and scrappy defender. Malcolm Brogdon knows that he's the same. Tony Snell knows he's a three-and-D who will draw the opposing team's best perimeter player unless Giannis needs to. Greg Monroe is content with being the 20-25 minute a game post monster off the bench (but I have a sneaking suspicion that he's playing for a new contract in this series). Khris Middleton knows that he's either a primary creator or an off-ball scorer, depending on the personnel on the floor. I can go on and on, but Jason Kidd (and to a certain extent, Jason Terry) has been able to inspire his young team to buy in.
3. They have a pipeline of young prospects who will only improve. Jabari Parker is a lethal scorer with the potential to be a stretch-four with defensive rebounding prowess. Thon Maker looks like a decent risk pick, showing rim protection ability and enough shooting touch to have to be guarded. Jabari's defense shows some lapses in effort and judgment, and Thon's a little too confident in his offensive game at points, but the flashes are there for a frontline of Giannis, Jabari, and Thon that has offensive firepower, great length, defensive versatility, rim protection, and good rebounding that can develop into the best in the league. On top of it all, Brogdon is already an above-average role player, and Rashad Vaughn has shown glimpses of turning into a heat-check sort of bench player (he's only 20, there's a lot of room for improvement).
4. The Milwaukee management and coaching needs to be commended as well. They paid for, but not overpaid for, role players that will contribute like Teletovic and Delly. The unloading of Michael Carter-Williams for Tony Snell was a total steal, throwing away decent point guard defense for equal perimeter defense and much superior three-point shooting. The drafting of Giannis, Thon, and Brogdon were all shrewd and/or calculated risks that have, to this point, paid off. Jason Kidd has trusted his roster and made do with some awkward fitting pieces, persuading Greg Monroe to embrace his bench role, instituting the Keith Bogansing of Thon Maker to slowly give him reps, and starting Brogdon as a point guard.

All that circle-jerking aside, the Bucks are far from being a final product ready to contend. The biggest issue that they run into is on offense, is two-fold, and stems from their centerpiece. Giannis still needs to find a jumpshot that he can rely on. He's not terrible from mid-range, around 34% on shots between 10 feet and the three point arc. He's a horrible three-point shooter, at only 27.2%. His release is very slow, especially in catch-and-shooting situations, which gives ample time for defenders to close out and the help defense to rotate into the lane to guard against his drives. If he can bump both those numbers by 6 percentage points, that could make a marked difference in how he's guarded. If he can even get to LeBron-level three point shooting (36-38%), he'll be better than Kawhi.

To supplement Giannis's lack of shooting, the Bucks surround him with shooting and force mismatched defenders onto him, either switching centers onto him far from the basket, so he can gain steam and run past them to the rim, or switching him onto smaller guards who he can bully in the post. This works often times, but the issue the Bucks run into is that Giannis still needs to put on a little more strength, so he can finish more strongly at the rim, instead of using his length to loft up soft floaters and finger rolls at the rim. The other issue is that the supporting cast isn't quite there yet. Sure, Brogdon, Snell, Middleton are great pieces. Jabari, when healthy, is a good one-on-one scorer and can attack close outs with power. Monroe is a solid post player. But the shot and play creation, outside of Giannis and, at times, Middleton, is lacking. This last part is the reason Milwaukee can't put their foot on Toronto's throat and finish them.

The simple answer is that this team needs to be healthy together and they'll grow into it. Brogdon and Middleton will learn to run pick-and-roll with Giannis and Jabari, who will learn to both score and play-make out of the roll/fade role. Thon will become a 38-40% three point shooter, improve his strength and become a good rim protector and defensive rebounder, Jabari won't let the ball stick as much in his hands, and this core of Brogdon, Middleton, Giannis, Jabari, and Maker, with Delly, Snell, and Monroe (on a cheaper contract) off the bench, will be the best team in the East in a couple of years. But it's entirely conceivable that Brogdon is as good as he'll ever be, a third guard on a good to great team, Middleton's who he is, a slow-footed old-man gamer, which isn't a second option on a championship team, Jabari is Carmelo-lite, and Thon is either 23 or won't be any more than a 20 minute a game sideshow of a player.

I don't think it's time to consider moving either of Parker or Middleton - they simply haven't played enough games together to see if the pieces fit together. But if the right trade offer comes in, perhaps for a more dynamic point guard to pair with Giannis, it might be a phone call Milwaukee should pick up.

The future is bright for this team, and that's what the Milwaukee fan base and the gambling idiots like me need to remember. Obviously, this series against Toronto isn't over, and I'm under the opinion that it'll definitely go seven, a game where Giannis must be the best player on the court if Milwaukee has any chance of staying within a manageable margin with the Raptors. But thrusting this young team who's missing one of their three best players into contention for the East crown is putting too many expectations on a core that will need time to brew.