The Blazers got knocked out of the playoffs in the first quarter in Game 4 against the buzzsaw that is Golden State. Obviously, they were overmatched against the Golden State, but after the All-Star break, I could make a pretty strong argument that they were one of the top four teams in the West.
Here's what went right for them:
The Blazers have a great young backcourt in Lillard and McCollum, two snipers that both have the ability to go off in any game. Along with that, they have solid perimeter defenders in Harkless and Aminu, a shooter in Allen Crabbe, and a very strong post prospect in Jusuf Nurkic, a center who's shown glimpes of playmaking ability from the elbow, much like an Andrew Bogut or Marc Gasol (shit, both my comps are white). Ed Davis is a fine piece off the bench, and Evan Turner, on a good day, is a good bench creator. Terry Stotts has instituted a solid gameplan that involves a lot of small-ball, pace-and-space schemes that became a lot more lethal with an actual post presence. It's admirable that they dragged themselves to the playoffs after starting out the season very slowly.
But that's the issue with this team: Neil Olshey's stellar move of trading for Nurkic only supplemented his host of ill-advised free agency moves, namely throwing so much money at the non-shooter Evan Turner, the only shooter Allen Crabbe, the always injured Festus Ezeli, and the "are we sure he should be in the league" Meyers Leonard. That's $50 million dollars on two role players, since Ezeli and Leonard hardly played. Off-loading Plumlee, who will probably demand near max money this summer, for Nurkic, who has a couple more years before he needs to be paid, offset some of the cap issues this team faces, but there's a lot of problems.
The good news is that the Blazers have three first-round picks, 15, 20, and 26, and a redundancy in the backcourt, and that may be the key for the future for them, not because they'll use these assets directly to improve for the future, but because they can flip them for a disgruntled star, namely Paul George. Here's a "who says no" trade that I really like for both teams:
Indiana gets: CJ McCollum and Evan Turner, picks 15 and 20 (I'd throw in 26 too if I had to convince Indiana to take on the Turner contract)
Portland gets: Paul George, Al Jefferson, and Aaron Brooks
We'll revisit this trade on the Indiana side in the Indiana offseason piece, but they'll get a young scorer on a long contract to pair with Turner and a host of picks that they could potentially use to move up and draft another young centerpiece.
Portland, however, gets a more balanced core, and that's exactly what they'd need to fit together better. Imagine a starting lineup of Lillard, Crabbe, George, Aminu, and Nurkic. That's two bonafide top 20 players, and a top ten center in Nurkic, who could develop into a top five center. They can surround that core with a sniper in Crabbe (top three shooter this year) and a hustle man with decent enough shooting range in Harkless. This team also becomes markedly better defensively, removing the backcourt issues they face right now with two small guards. Obviously, Al Jefferson can't really play anymore in this league, but taking on his contract to facilitate a Paul George addition isn't too much to swallow. Aaron Brook has an option on his contract, but it's cheap, so it doesn't matter
The bench would be an issue with this trade, with only Davis and Aminu being the two playable pieces off the bench. The combination of Napier and Brooks might not be good enough for a backup point guard, but maybe they could target a Sergio Rodriguez. They could also add some wing depth by throwing a mid-level contract at Thabo Sefolosha, who can still provide fifteen to twenty good minutes off the bench.
Now, what if the Pacers aren't interested in unloading Paul George this summer? I'd still look to trade off C.J. McCollum, a contract, and a combination of those picks for a piece that fits better. Three mid to late first round picks in this shallow draft won't be too helpful for this team. The concept of a offensively strong backcourt with two small guards running around, sniping and Kyrie-ing around is a fun, but ultimately fruitless, concept. If Olshey is serious about turning this team into a contender, they need to find a bigger, more defensively-able wing to pair with Lillard and Nurkic.
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