Pound the Pavement

The Blazers got knocked out of the playoffs in the first quarter in Game 4 against the buzzsaw that is Golden State. Obviously, they were overmatched against the Golden State, but after the All-Star break, I could make a pretty strong argument that they were one of the top four teams in the West. Here's what went right for them: The Blazers have a great young backcourt in Lillard and McCollum, two snipers that both have the ability to go off in any game. Along with that, they have solid perimeter defenders in Harkless and Aminu, a shooter in Allen Crabbe, and a very strong post prospect in Jusuf Nurkic, a center who's shown glimpes of playmaking ability from the elbow, much like an Andrew Bogut or Marc Gasol (shit, both my comps are white). Ed Davis is a fine piece off the bench, and Evan Turner, on a good day, is a good bench creator. Terry Stotts has instituted a solid gameplan that involves a lot of small-ball, pace-and-space schemes that became a lot more lethal wit...

This is actually a PSA to myself. I'm the guy who looked at the first game of the playoffs for each Eastern Conference team, when Cleveland looked shaky, Boston lost to Chicago at home, the Wiz played uninspiring basketball against a hapless Hawks team and took Milwaukee's big Game 1 win over Toronto as an omen. Such a big omen that I placed a bet at +5000 on the Bucks making the Finals. Sure, I'm a grad student, so I only bet $5, but I was more confident than not that I'd get the $250 payout. But, I have taken a breath and realize that I wasted that Lincoln. Here's some breaking news to me and all the others on the hype train to the Cream City (that is a weirdly soothing nickname for a city): the Bucks aren't making the Finals because they're not ready yet. They're probably not going to win this series against the Raptors, let alone beat the Cavs AND the Wizards or the Celtics. It's not happening this year, and that's completely fine. Here...

Believe it or not, if I had to rank the NBA franchises with the bleakest futures, the Brooklyn Nets would not rank dead last. They'd rank dead next to last, but that's neither here nor there. Here's what's working for this team. They have a clear vision for a playing style. Kenny Atkinson has instituted a pace-and-space offense that's in the top five in pace and floor spreading. With Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopez in an all-wings lineup with Randy Foye (average shooter), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (good defender, big defender, bad shooter), and Caris LeVert (promising, but still underdeveloped), they actually have a solidly positive lineup, outscoring opponents by almost 4 points per 100 possessions. Atkinson is also a great developmental mind, turning LeVert, Hollis-Jefferson, and Isaiah Whitehead into prospects who'll probably be role players on good teams. Management also has resigned to this patient, rebuilding process, trading away pieces smartly for a...

Here's the plan for the next few months: Preview each series in depth - provide the strengths and weaknesses of each team, talk about how the two lineups stack up, identify some X-factors, and predictions Scheme road maps from each of the lottery teams while the playoffs are going on, and when they're done, for the playoff teams. A couple mock drafts There's going to be a lot of content coming soon. Comment below if you have something to say!

So, I recently came out and said that I'd pick Kawhi Leonard for MVP over Russell Westbrook and his triple doubles. Based on the number of OKC games I've seen, the infamous eye test gives me the impression that Russell Westbrook, when he hunts his stats causes more harm than good to the Thunder. Obviously, a true statistical approach to this question would be difficult and very time-consuming, but I did a rough analysis to gain some insight on Russell Westbrook, his triple doubles, and how they translate to wins. First bookkeeping note here. I classified each of Russ's games as a Legit Triple Double (LTD), a Barely Got There triple double (BGT), a Nearly Missed triple double (NM), and a Missed It triple double (MI). A BGT is a triple double where the sum of the number of assists and the number of rebounds is less than 22. An NM is a non-triple double where Russ had at least 9 assists or 9 rebounds. Of the 80 games I'm considering (I'm throwing out the last two ga...

Even though my Tar Heels won their sixth national title last night, the utter lack of coherent play made me crave the fluidity of the NBA. So, let's talk awards. Rookie of the Year - Malcolm Brogdon Malcolm Brogdon edges out Dario Saric for me, sheerly because he's arguably the third most important player on a solid playoff team in Milwaukee. On the year, he's putting up nearly 11 points, a shade over 4 assists and almost 3 rebounds on 27 minutes a game, on 45.7/40.4/85.6 shooting splits and guarding point guards and bigger shooting guards on the other end. He's essentially the type of role player combo guard that every team with championship aspirations desires, and his contract's not even for a million dollars a year. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Brogdon develops into a 50/40/90 shooter who provides tough defense, essentially an offensively gifted Patrick Beverly, beside the offensive machinery on this team. I started out the year salivat...

The Sweet Sixteen is set, and it's time for NBA viewers to think about what prospects fit best with lottery teams. I simulated a fake lottery, and let's go: 1. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) - Markelle Fultz This is a no-brainer for Boston, affording them the ability to build steadily for a future sans Isaiah Thomas. Some kind of future core around Fultz and Jaylen Brown is a starting spot if this realization of the Celtics can't flip their future assets for a superstar. Fultz can play alongside Thomas now, as a playmaker and an off-ball scorer, making Smart and/or Bradley expendable for trades. 2. Phoenix Suns - Josh Jackson Phoenix doesn't need one of the point guards in this point guard rich draft. But they could really benefit from a swing-forward. They'll probably be deciding between Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum, the former of which is more athletic, a better play-maker, and a much superior defender, all the while being a worse offensive player, at ...

Bill Simmons recently embarked on finding a suitable trade for every single team in the NBA. He only did 27 because he's weak. Let's do one for each team. Atlanta Hawks ATL gets: Lou Williams, Marcelo Huertas, and Metta World Peace for some scoring punch off the bench for the playoffs, some point guard depth, and some one to warm the end of the bench LAL gets: Tiago Splitter's and Thabo Sefolosha's expiring contracts and BKN's 2017 second rounder and Miami's 2017 second rounder. LAL can shed some salary, potentially get even worse, and gain some draft picks if they lose their pick to the 76ers Boston Celtics BOS gets Jimmy Butler, Nerlens Noel, and Nik Stauskas for their 1B scorer and some much needed rim protection and rebounding CHI gets Amir Johnson, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart (sorry, Bill, Smart isn't as good as you really think), the 2017 BKN first round swap, and the 2017 Minnesota second rounder for some young prospects to rebuild with P...

The draft order below is determined by inverting the standings, and applying the necessary draft swaps. 1. Boston Celtics - Lonzo Ball Ceiling Comp: Jason Kidd with J.J. Redick's shooting accuracy Floor Comp: J.J. Redick with Jason Kidd's passing vision Boston needs wing depth, especially since their top three guards are all point guards. Marcus Smart hsa the strength to guard wings, but offensively he requires the ball in his hands. Lonzo Ball fits the rotation very well, playing well off-ball with Isaiah Thomas and Smart because of his shooting ability, his quick first step, and his secondary playmaking. His defense needs to markedly improve, which will, as he ages and gains strength. But, in that Brad Stevens spread offese, his court feel would add a lot. However, if the Celtics can package this pick for an established first or second option for their team, that's the move. If the Bulls' season completely unravels, they may try to parlay their Sacramento t...

All-Star voting is underway, which means that it's time for every no-name blog (oh wait, that includes me) to start predicting the rosters for both the East and the West. But before we do that, let's just applaud the NBA for having the balls to move the All-Star from Charlotte. Adam Silver, you're an ace . These rosters aren't predictions; they're players I believe have performed at an All-Star level for the first half of the season. East All-Star Starters G: Kyrie Irving G: Isaiah Thomas This starting spot came down to Isaiah Thomas and Kyle Lowry, both of whom are playing at top ten MVP level. But, at his height, Thomas's scoring efficiency (61% true shooting, 26.8 PER, 2.0 VORP), along with his playmaking load, is something we haven't seen since Allen Iverson. Kyle Lowry is a better distributor and defender, but I'm in the camp that DeRozan's contribution to the Raptors is often understated. F: LeBron James F: Giannis Antetokuonmpo F:...

2016 was a crappy year, outside of basketball, and I don't want to relive or revisit it, by any means. So, let's look forward to 2017, and what it may hold for the NBA landscape. DeMarcus Cousins will be traded to the Boston Celtics, Rudy Gay to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Andrew Bogut to the Portland Trailblazers, Brook Lopez to the Dallas Mavericks, and Ricky Rubio to the Sacramento Kings. Giannis Antetokuonmpo and Marc Gasol will be All-Star game starters and Kemba Walker will make his first All-Star team, in a game that'll feature Russell Westbrook as MVP. The Milwaukee Bucks, Washington Wizards, and Denver Nuggets will make the playoffs. The Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Portland Trailblazers, and Sacramento Kings will not make the playoffs. James Harden will be MVP, Rudy Gobert will be DPOY, and Joel Embiid will be ROY. The Houston Rockets and the Boston Celtics will make the conference finals in their respective conferences. The Finals will feature bot...

"I do not do cross-era comparisons." - David Jacoby That's how a lot of smart people view the NBA throughout history, as distinct eras, each with their most dominant players and most dominant teams - the 1960s with Russell's Celtics battling the individual greatness of Wilt, the coke-addled 70s with the rise of Kareem, the star power of the 1980s, featuring Magic's Lakers, Bird's Celtics, the Bad Boy Pistons, and Dr. J's Sixers, Jordan in the 90s, the barren wasteland of the early to mid-2000s with Shaq and Kobe, and then LeBron's world. Another way to distinguish these eras are through playing styles: The 1970s were all about gliding as close to the hoop and making smooth finishes near the rim. The 1980s were about pushing the pace and finding an open man in space. Jordan ushered in an era of hero ball with an emphasis on surrounding good post up players with cutting (i.e. MJ in Chicago, Hakeem in Houston, and Ewing in New York), something that c...

The whole point of the NBA is to get to the truth. For an NBA season, the truth is the answer to the question: "Who's the best team in the league?" You can probably look at the season as a series of binary experiments, comparing two teams. There are 1,230 such experiments during the regular season, and the playoffs consist of a maximum of 105 experiments. Based on the outcomes of these experiments, we're able to determine the best team in the league. Think about that - the NBA plays more than 1,300 games to get at this truth, and most, if not all, of these teams are entirely different at the end of the season as they are at the beginning. It's almost as if the first month and a half of the NBA regular season can be thrown out, kind of like a feeling out process. There's an algorithm used heavily in statistics called the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Essentially, it's a way to find the answer to a difficult question by creatively re-sampling from diffic...

The Hall of Fame is an achievement, and it's a fun exercise, at least for me, to think about players who deserve to be in and those who don't. Among retired players, there are obvious shoo-ins - guys like Kobe Bryant and Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan. There's no point talking about those players. Let's talk about some controversial players. We did a little bit of this on Episode 12 of The Crevice. You can check that out right here: Chris Webber (1993-2008) Stats: 17,182 PTS; 8,124 REB; 3,526 AST; 1,200 BLK; 1,200 STL Accolades: ROY, 5x All-Star, 1 All-NBA 1st Team, 3 All-NBA 2nd Team, 1 All-NBA 3rd Team BasketballReference HOF Probability: 14.6% Let's do the first simple check - the "who's got these stats" check. There are 12 players in NBA history who have recorded more that 17,000 points, 8,000 rebounds, and 3,500 assists, 11 of whom are retired. All of those 11 are in the Hall of Fame. Granted, Webber is at the very bottom ...

On a recent TrueHoop Show episode with Kevin Arnovitz and Kevin Pelton, they played a little game that piqued my interests. After a discussion about how Sacramento and Vlade Divac have failed DeMarcus Cousins (I really don't want to rehash that; that would take nearly a thousand words and would be really depressing), they ended their conversation with drafting a fake team under the salary cap for Boogie. So, I'm unabashedly going to do that: a 13-man roster, under the salary cap, with the sole purpose of making Boogie happy and in the Finals contention. Starting Lineup PG: John Wall (Salary: $16.96 million) SG: Rodney Hood (Salary: $1.41 million) SF: Jae Crowder (Salary: $6.29 million) PF: Serge Ibaka (Salary: $12.25 million) C: DeMarcus Cousins (Salary: $15.85 million) Bench PG: Cory Joseph (Salary: $7.35 million) SG: Malcolm Brogdon (Salary: $925 thousand) SF: Tony Snell (Salary: $2.37 million) PF: Channing Frye (Salary: $7.81 million) C: Willie Cauley-Stein...