These are the types of pointless thoughts I have, and now that I have an outlet to talk about them, I can. So yes, I am going to talk about a fringe NBA rotation player on the franchise with the bleakest future. When I have more time to talk about real NBA topics, I promise this'll be more interesting.
Sean Kilpatrick - an undersized 6'4'' shooting guard, who can't play point and can't play the other wing position. At Cincinnati, he reached first team All-American status as a gritty, slashing Big East guard. But undrafted out of college, he bounced around the D-League and bad teams until finally getting his break with the Nets this year. Through 19 games, 9 of which he's started, he's averaging 16.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists on 41.4/33.0/81.3 shooting splits. He's holding guys he's guarding to 40.7% shooting and has shown the ability to pester ball handlers. He even had 38 point outburst against the Clippers, where he willed his team to a double-OT win, while simultaneously chasing J.J. Redick around the court through screens and hounding Chris Paul on pick-and-rolls. He's clearly got a place in the league.
But what is that place? Team building is a really tricky proposition. Your role players need to give effort like they're stars, but they can't expect to have the usage and shots that your primary scorers expect. That's the line between a Danny Green and a Nick Young (of old). Kilpatrick is getting a piece of the sweet life, where he can shoot whatever shot he wants, whenever he wants. I don't know, even if he finds himself on a playoff team, in a contributing role, maybe this taste of hero ball might not mesh well as the eighth best player on the team.
If you pull up FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections for Kilpatrick, Tim Legler and Gary Neal are the top two comps, both of whom had admirable NBA careers. But, further down the list, we get names that no player ever wants to be compared to, like Gordan Giricek and Sasha Danilovic. All of those players were known as shooters in the league, but only Legler was an actually good, consistent long-range shooter. Kilpatrick's shooting numbers are actually in line with someone like Gary Neal; aside from a couple of out-of-body experiences with the Spurs, Neal's shooting was putrid, far worse than Kilpatrick's numbers. The good news is that Kilpatrick is far more athletic than any of those four comps, and he's a better one-on-one and team defender than Neal could ever think of being.
So what's the verdict? This might sound like a cop out, but it depends on the system. If he's stuck on teams like the Nuggets, the Sixers, and the no end in sight Nets, he'll develop bad habits, where he guns, just to keep his team afloat, exactly like he had to in college. But, say, he agrees to a 2 year-$15 million contract this summer with the up-and-coming Timberwolves. He can start on that team, play no more than 20 minutes a game, guard his position with fervor, and knock down open shots. He can also shift Lavine down to a sixth man role, that suits him. What if he signs with the San Antonio organization or David Griffin tries him out to add wing depth? He just could have a long, prosperous career.
Sean Kilpatrick - an undersized 6'4'' shooting guard, who can't play point and can't play the other wing position. At Cincinnati, he reached first team All-American status as a gritty, slashing Big East guard. But undrafted out of college, he bounced around the D-League and bad teams until finally getting his break with the Nets this year. Through 19 games, 9 of which he's started, he's averaging 16.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists on 41.4/33.0/81.3 shooting splits. He's holding guys he's guarding to 40.7% shooting and has shown the ability to pester ball handlers. He even had 38 point outburst against the Clippers, where he willed his team to a double-OT win, while simultaneously chasing J.J. Redick around the court through screens and hounding Chris Paul on pick-and-rolls. He's clearly got a place in the league.
But what is that place? Team building is a really tricky proposition. Your role players need to give effort like they're stars, but they can't expect to have the usage and shots that your primary scorers expect. That's the line between a Danny Green and a Nick Young (of old). Kilpatrick is getting a piece of the sweet life, where he can shoot whatever shot he wants, whenever he wants. I don't know, even if he finds himself on a playoff team, in a contributing role, maybe this taste of hero ball might not mesh well as the eighth best player on the team.
If you pull up FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections for Kilpatrick, Tim Legler and Gary Neal are the top two comps, both of whom had admirable NBA careers. But, further down the list, we get names that no player ever wants to be compared to, like Gordan Giricek and Sasha Danilovic. All of those players were known as shooters in the league, but only Legler was an actually good, consistent long-range shooter. Kilpatrick's shooting numbers are actually in line with someone like Gary Neal; aside from a couple of out-of-body experiences with the Spurs, Neal's shooting was putrid, far worse than Kilpatrick's numbers. The good news is that Kilpatrick is far more athletic than any of those four comps, and he's a better one-on-one and team defender than Neal could ever think of being.
So what's the verdict? This might sound like a cop out, but it depends on the system. If he's stuck on teams like the Nuggets, the Sixers, and the no end in sight Nets, he'll develop bad habits, where he guns, just to keep his team afloat, exactly like he had to in college. But, say, he agrees to a 2 year-$15 million contract this summer with the up-and-coming Timberwolves. He can start on that team, play no more than 20 minutes a game, guard his position with fervor, and knock down open shots. He can also shift Lavine down to a sixth man role, that suits him. What if he signs with the San Antonio organization or David Griffin tries him out to add wing depth? He just could have a long, prosperous career.
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